Star Wars: Episode VII isn’t due out until 2015, but it’s never too early to predict how much money it will make. It may seem pointless trying to work out the film’s gross now, but it’s actually quite important to Disney’s share price. With Lone Ranger possibly losing as much as $150 million for the studio, investors want to know whether the studio has a solid line-up for the future.
Credit Suisse analyst Michael Senno has come up with some numbers, based on the last Star Wars film (which grossed $850 million) and Disney’s success with Marvel, and estimates that Episode VII will make $733 million in profit, with $1.2 billion in global ticket sales and more money coming from merchandising.
Senno also says he thinks The Lone Ranger will only lose $100 million, which it still a big failure, but not as bad as others have been saying.
People’s faith in Disney’s future plans should give the company solace, as a single massive failure can often cause a slump in the share price, but the company has actually managed to gain in value over the past few days, despite Lone Ranger. The thought amongst investors seems to be that with Disney concentrating on relatively safe bets such as Star Wars, Marvel movies and animated efforts, there will be fewer failures such as Lone Ranger and John Carter, and that even if there are a few, overall the company can weather those upsets.
It is all a guess about Episode VII at the moment though, and we’ll have to wait until 2015 to see whether $1.2 billion is even close to the final gross.
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